Markets moved sharply on macro signals and political calendars Thursday, as comments from a Federal Reserve official and a rapid strengthening of the Japanese yen pushed Bitcoin higher while political delays clouded expectations for U.S. crypto legislation.
Bitcoin jumps after Fed signals a pause
Bitcoin surged back above $80,000, reaching near $80,270 on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support keeping interest rates steady. That remark lowered the market-implied odds of a September rate hike to 50.4% from 63.2% the day before, prompting quick risk-on flows into crypto and other assets. The move produced over $500 million in liquidations across derivatives markets in 24 hours, including roughly $415 million in short positions.
Yen appreciation and dollar weakness influence flows
At the same time, a sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen contributed to broad-based dollar weakness that supported both Bitcoin and gold. Traders are watching a possible Bank of Japan interest rate decision on Sept. 18. Analysts cautioned that a rapid yen rally can reverse carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest elsewhere, and that such reversals have previously triggered quick sell-offs in risky assets. The note pointed to August 2024, when Bitcoin fell about 20% in a few days during a carry-trade unwind.
Political timeline pushes CLARITY further back
Legislative timing added a regulatory headwind for crypto: House leadership removed the last two weeks of September from the voting calendar, effectively eliminating eight working days before the Senate’s procedural vote on the CLARITY bill scheduled for Sept. 15. Lawmakers will return after Labor Day for four days of voting and then adjourn on Sept. 17, with the chamber not expected to resume regular legislative work before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Markets price in lower odds for CLARITY passage
Market participants and political bettors reacted by trimming expectations that comprehensive crypto legislation will pass soon. Polymarket traders lowered the probability that the CLARITY law will be enacted in 2026 to around 17-18%, down from about 20% in August. In the regulatory sphere, former SEC Chairman Paul Atkins noted that the commission’s proposed rules would need legislative backing to be durable when the commission’s membership changes in the future.
What traders and observers are watching next
The immediate market focus remains on central bank commentary and short-term rate expectations, which can swiftly alter positioning in futures and margin markets. The yen’s trajectory and the Bank of Japan’s Sept. 18 meeting are additional potential catalysts for cross-asset moves. On the policy side, the revised House calendar and the approach of midterm elections reduce the near-term clarity on whether major crypto-related legislation will reach the finish line.
Overall, the day underscored how sensitive crypto markets remain to macroeconomic signals and calendar shifts in Washington, with rapid price moves and political delays shaping both short-term flows and expectations for regulatory outcomes.